Nereus Fellow at Princeton University Colleen Petrik won the Science Board Best Presentation Award at the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) annual meeting, held in San Diego, from November 2 to 11. She gave a plenary presentation on “The response of fisheries production to natural and anthropogenic forcing: past, present and future”, using the results of the model she developed with her Nereus research. The session details are below. Congratulations, Colleen!
The Response of Fisheries Production to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing: Past, Present and Future
Colleen M. Petrik, Charles Stock, Ken Andersen, James Watson and Jorge Sarmiento
Many empirical relationships between commercial fish recruitment and population biomass with the environment exist, however the mechanisms behind these relationships are rarer. These mechanisms are often region-specific and can dissolve over time. We seek a mechanistic understanding of the variability of commercial fish recruitment and population biomass with respect to natural and anthropogenic forcing, both historically and with future climate change. To do so, we have developed a global stage- and size-based mechanistic model that represents the immature and mature stages of forage fishes, large pelagic fishes, and large demersal fishes. In this talk we will present preliminary results of fish biomass under (1) pristine non-anthropogenic historical forcing (no anthropogenic CO2, no fishing), (2) historical climate without fishing, (3) historical climate with fishing, (4) and projected business-as-usual climate and fishing. The stepwise addition of forcings in simulations 1-3 separate the effects of each, while simulation 4 forecasts the potential fish biomass response to integrated natural and anthropogenic forcings of climate and fishing. Specific attention will be paid to North Pacific ecosystems.