Charles Stock

Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

Variations in climate lead to fluctuations and changes in fish stocks; they can have effects on such things as fish behaviour, distributions and growth. Because of this, fisheries management has to respond dynamically to these fluctuations. If management decisions are made primarily on past patterns, the negative impacts can be exacerbated, especially with climate change.

25 Years of PICES: Celebrating the Past, Imaging the Future annual meeting

From November 2 to 13, the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) held their annual meeting in San Diego, USA. The meeting celebrated the 25th anniversary of PICES with the theme of looking at the past 25 years and imagining the next 25. Some of the topics of interest included coastal ecosystem stressors, loss or changes of marine biodiversity, changing productivity and species distributions in response to climate change, developing outlooks or forecasts of future ocean ecosystems, and examining climate change impacts on ocean ecosystems and human society.

PICES Annual Meeting

Nereus Fellow at Princeton Colleen Petrik will be giving a plenary talk entitled “The Response of Fisheries Production to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing: Past, Present and Future” at the PICES Annual Meeting in San Diego. The talk presents a mechanistic model to represent immature and mature stages of forage fishes, large pelagic fishes, and large demersal fishes, as well as preliminary of fish biomass under (1) pristine non-anthropogenic historical forcing (no anthropogenic CO2, no fishing), (2) historical climate without fishing, (3) historical climate with fishing, (4) and projected business-as-usual climate and fishing.

Sources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors

The ocean has provided incredible services for us — taking up 28% of carbon emissions since preindustrial levels and absorbing 93% of the Earth’s excess heat since the 1970s — but because of this, it is undergoing changes. In order to manage ocean ecosystems and resources in the future, we must begin to understand what those changes may look like using climate change impact projections.

A computer model is used to show projections of how fish species may move towards the poles and into deeper waters in a high CO2 emissions scenario. Source: Jones and Cheung 2015.

Where do we go from here? Building confidence in climate change impact projection models

Climate change is expected to have major impacts on the ocean, the species that live there, and the people who rely it for their food and livelihood. Since the beginning of the 20th century, CO2 emissions from human activities have altered physical and chemical properties of the ocean. The ocean has become warmer and, in some areas, less oxygenated, which has caused changes in the productivity and distribution of marine species.

Nereus members attend ICES/PICES Workshop on Modelling Effects of Climate Change on Fish and Fisheries

Charles Stock (Nereus Principal Investigator, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), Kelly Kearney (Nereus Alumni, Princeton), Yoshitaka Ota (Nereus Director, Policy, UBC) and William Cheung (Nereus Director, Science, UBC) participated in the ICES/PICES Workshop on Modelling Effects of Climate Change on Fish and Fisheries organized by NOAA in Seattle, from August 10 to 12.